Jan

28

7 Days and Counting

Filed Under California, Election 2008 | Leave a Comment

In about 7 days we are set to experience a “watershed” moment in history. In a conversation with the Lt. Governor, we discuss state and national politics and pondered what Tuesday, February 5 would bring.

Change is what next Tuesday is going to bring. A change in our state politics; a change in our national politics and a change in the hearts and minds of people.

On Saturday, Senator Obama rocked the South Carolina Primary. I was in Yosemite at the time. Reception was poor enough so I did not learn of the results until Mayra and I left the snow-covered park and returned to Merced.

I was happy to spend the day with Mayra in the place John Muir called “The Yosemite.” A majestic place of absolute amazement.

Standing with Mayra in the frigid air, looking at the snow-capped Half Dome and basking in the glow of the sun, I was at peace.

Jan

5

Words Do

Filed Under Barack Obama, Election 2008 | Leave a Comment

Jan

3

Hope

Filed Under Barack Obama, Election 2008, United States | Leave a Comment

“Hope is not blind optimism. It’s not ignoring the enormity of the tasks ahead or the road blocks that stand in our path. It’s not sitting on the sidelines or shirking from a fight, hope is that thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to reach for it, and to work for it, and to fight for it.” - Senator Barack Obama the Night of the Iowa Victory

Visit http://www.barackobama.com/, sign up for My.BarackObama.com, and stand for change!

Jan

2

Time for Change, 382 Days from Today

Filed Under Barack Obama, Election 2008, The World, United States | Leave a Comment

Today, Thursday, January 3, 2008, is the beginning of the time for change. In the state of Iowa, hundreds of thousands of folks will be leaving the warmth and comfort of their homes and walk to a neighbor’s residence, walk through the old doors of their high school gym, walk downstairs into the basement of their church, or meet in the hall of the community center and caucus for change, caucus for a new direction, and caucus for a new America.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 at 12:00:01PM noon Eastern Standard Time, President Barack Obama will be our nation’s new face, our country’s new leader, and our history’s new visionary who will begin the arduous process of reorganizing our government, redefining our values, reshaping our nation, rebuilding our image around the world.

I look forward to that day, some 382 days from now. And the first step in our journey to that moment begins with tomorrow’s caucus in Iowa.

Go Obama!

Jan

1

Television, Mortgage Crisis, Recession?

Filed Under California, Economy, United States | Leave a Comment

This year, I am going to spend more time synthesizing and sharing my thoughts through my blog.

Frankly, I am disenchanted with television and how it repeats the same news story over and over. The news at 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 is nearly the same; new information is rarely presented within that six hour window and arguably a person can read more in one hour than they can watch in six.

Normally, when I return to Bellflower to spend time with my family, the television is on. I remember a few years ago I came home from school and I became extremely frustrated with the news cycle. I did not go so far as to hurl the remote at the television, though the thought did cross my mind and I laughed, that was a defining moment for me: I turned off the tube.

This winter break, I got my toxic dose of television. Each newscast mentions the holiday cheer, the seemingly excessive mall shopping and what looms ahead in 2008. The topic that taints the hourly news is the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

I first heard of the impending sub-prime mortgage crisis from Professor Gary Dymski at the UC Center at Sacramento in early summer 2007. An unfamiliar topic of seemingly import garnered my undivided attention. As Professor Dymski described the crisis, I became intrigued, although somewhat confused, with the topic. As time passed, the sub-prime mortgage was mentioned more and more in the print press and I have been following it every since.

My understanding of sub-prime mortgage is limited but basically how I understand it is that a whole bunch of people sold a whole bunch of loans to other people (we are talking hundreds of thousands if not millions of folks) whose rates would increase like the face of a cliff in a few years. In other words, as you walked through desert flats, another traveler encouraged you to continue walking knowing that you would face a vertical climb in the near future and neglected to make that abundantly clear.

Now, a whole bunch of people are starting to reach the base of the cliff and have no idea how to climb it. The government (both federal and states) are trying to help by throwing ropes down but only a few folks have the gloves to hold on; the others are out of luck.

Some argue that the government should do more to help those in need, others contend that that is the nature of markets: some win, some lose. Others argue that the government should work towards ensuring that those who point people to continue to walk through the desert should make it very clear that they will have a cliff to climb; and still others emphasize that travelers should be weary of advice given from strangers.

In sum, the range of options is from action to no action, strong action (punish companies) to weak action (individually responsibility next time), strong-independent action (individual should empower self with knowledge) to weak-dependent action (seller should empower buyer with knowledge) and so on and so forth. We can break it down into a million options.

The main argument being advanced by mainstream media is that the sub-prime mortgage crisis may lead to a recession of the economy.

The logic appears to be as follows: people can’t afford to pay for their homes, so they spend less elsewhere (like on goods and services); less people can afford homes, so the demand for (too costly) homes decreases; as demand for homes decreases, those who build homes layoff workers and those workers are now unemployed. As unemployment increases, consumer spending decreases, and less money is exchanged throughout the economy and this results in a slow down and may eventually lead to a recession or a prolonged period of slower-than-average economic growth.

I believe our economy will not enter a recession.

The sub-prime mortgage crisis is being way overblown in the mainstream media and there are several mitigating factors that weaken the perceived strength of the crisis.

For one, more people participate directly in the economy through the Internet. People are making/saving pennies, nickels and so on from selling/buying through the Internet. Our economy is becoming less representative meaning that there are less firms that employ a significant segment of the population. Thus, if a firm performs below expectations, then the ensuing shock in confidence does not reverberate as strongly because people are not as close to the firm (employed, a family member is employed, or a close friend is employed). In other words, our economy is diversifying and the Internet is helping promote such diversification.

The second mitigating factor is the amount of information available. As the mainstream media continually reinforces and seemingly increasing weakness of the economy, people have look to other sources of information that argue otherwise. On the world wide web, there is a healthy debate over the impacts of the sub-prime mortgages. Some argue doom and gloom and others argue that we will weather the storm. Somewhere in between lies the truth and I think there are more and more people who seek more credible sources of information to help them determine whether or not one source of information is true or not true.

The final mitigating factor is our increasingly educated society. As more and more people obtain higher levels of education, whether formal or informal, their critical thinking, information collection and analysis abilities, and overall understanding of the world is more complete than it was in the past. The idea is that in no other time in human history has society had as much information available to it so readily. Access to information has increased, production of information has increased and ultimately our capacity to effectively process mass amounts of information has increased. This is an idea to really be in awe of. Each time I think about it, I say “Wow” and ponder the future.

Jan

1

Happy New Year!

Filed Under Personal | Leave a Comment

It’s 2008! Happy New Year! I hear fireworks exploding outside and the re-run of the Times Square crystal ball drop. Enjoy the night!